报告题目：Beyond the Short Run: Monetary Policy and Innovation Investment
报 告 人：Olga Goldfayn-Frank
报告时间： 2026年04月16日（周四）15:40-17:00
报告地点：博学楼 I-206
主办单位：高等经济研究院
【报告人简介】
Olga Goldfayn-Frank博士现任德国联邦银行研究中心经济学家，并担任经济政策研究中心（CEPR）研究成员。她于德国法兰克福大学获得经济学博士学位。其研究领域主要包括家庭金融决策与预期、企业行为及其对宏观经济得影响。研究成果发表于 Review of Economic Studies、Journal of Monetary Economics（2篇）、 AEA Papers and Proceedings 等国际学术期刊。
【内容摘要】
Using a novel approach implemented in a unique survey of German firms, we study how monetary policy affects firms’ innovation investment. We find that the ECB’s policy rate hike of cumulative 450 basis points at the end of 2023 led 33% of firms to cut innovation spending by 67% on average, with effects persisting through 2024-2025. We show further that while rate hikes discourage innovation investment, cuts stimulate firms’ innovation spending. We demonstrate that forward guidance communication can provide significant additional stimulus, suggesting longer-term, supply-side effects of forward guidance. Monetary policy transmission operates through both financial and demand channels, with stronger effects for smaller firms, those with a higher share of bank loans, and those with weak expectations about demand. Our findings indicate persistent effects of monetary policy on longer-term aggregate supply, challenge long-run monetary neutrality and suggest policy-endogeneity of the natural rate of interest R*.
【更多信息】
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撰稿：王杰 审核：崔惠玉 单位：高等经济研究院
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