【报告人简介】

Robert Kirkby，惠灵顿维多利亚大学宏观经济学高级讲师，担任经济与金融学院本科项目主任。他于2014年获得马德里卡洛斯三世大学经济学博士学位，主要研究方向为宏观经济政策分析，重点致力于开发理论与计算工具以优化分析方法。其研究成果发表在Computional Economics、Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics、Macroeconomic Dynamics、Journal of Macroeconomics 等期刊。

【内容摘要】

We build a small open-economy overlapping-generations model (SOE-OLG) to understand changes in the natural rate of interest in New Zealand between 2000 and 2024. We do this by solving the model for repeated transition paths, with each year producing a new transition path based on agents' evolving expectations about the future. These repeated transition paths form the basis for the realised historical path of the natural rate of interest. We consider seven drivers of the natural rate of interest: the world natural rate of interest, the birth rate, productivity growth, government debt levels, old-age labour force participation, longevity and migration. We find that a lower world natural rate and declines in labour productivity growth have been important factors driving the decline in the natural rate of interest in New Zealand since 2000. The effect of changes in demographic drivers, while important in the long-run equilibrium, only have a modest impact on the natural rate of interest in the transition path. As a first extension we model the amount of inflationary pressure associated with the natural rate of interest along the transition path, to understand how the neutral rate of interest differs from the natural rate of interest. A second extension modifies the baseline model to allow for a premium on the return on private capital relative to the return on government debt. Modelling the premium allows the calibrated model to produce estimates of the natural rate of interest which are at a consistent level with other estimates for New Zealand.

【更多信息】

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撰稿：王杰 审核：胡蓉 单位：高等经济研究院