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IAER Seminar 2020-11:杜清源

报告题目:Non-rational Beliefs in an Open Economy

报 告 人:杜清源

报告时间: 2020年07月01日(周三)10:00-11:30

报告地点:腾讯会议(会议ID:976 808 862)

主办单位:高等经济研究院

【报告人简介】

杜清源,澳大利亚莫纳什大学经济系高级讲师,2011年获哥伦比亚大学经济学博士学位。研究领域为国际经济学、宏观经济学和中国经济。曾在 Journal of International Economics、European Economic Review、Economics Letters等期刊发表文章。

【内容摘要】

 This paper proposes a new theory of exchange rate determination. Under arbitrary beliefs, the exchange rate is determined by an equilibrium restriction which we call the generalized no-arbitrage condition. The pricing function predicts endogenous departures from the conventional rational expectations uncovered interest parity condition. In an empirical open-economy model with learning, using Canadian and United States data, we evaluate whether learning can account for exchange rate dynamics and reduce reliance on exogenous risk-premium shocks to explain departures from uncovered interest parity. Reminiscent of Justiniano and Preston (2010a), we find learning dynamics help explain the persistence and volatility of exchanges rates but generate counter-factual predictions on international macroeconomic comovement, requiring use of exogenous risk-premium shocks.

【参会方式】

腾讯会议  会议ID:976 808 862

方式一:下载“腾讯会议”客户端,输入“会议ID”加入会议

方式二:点击参会链接加入会议

https://meeting.tencent.com/s/HfAcv6XFZBRM

【更多信息】

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撰稿:王杰 审核:齐鹰飞 单位:高等经济研究院

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